The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr George Carey, is entering the last phase of his primacy. At the very latest he is unlikely to go on after the Queen's Golden Jubilee, in 2003. So who will succeed him?

Anyone writing on the subject must be humbled by the total failure of commentators to predict Carey's own rise to power. Nothing heralded his emergence from Bath and Wells but a last-minute flurry of bets placed by MPs tipped off by a newspaper.

The process of selection is fairly opaque: the candidate must satisfy the prime minister as well as the Church's own committees; and Mr Blair has shown himself willing to interfere in the selection process rather more than Mrs Thatcher ever dared. Still, there are four or five names that will be on everyone's list; so here is a punter's guide.

Durham	Liverpool	London	York	Wales

As the race develops, others may appear on the rails. Those who fancy an evangelical carrying less handicap than either Turnbull or Jones may risk a flutter on John Gladwyn, the Bishop of Guildford, though he may be too left-wing for Mr Blair. Those who want a Catholic candidate just as light on his feet as Gladwyn might want Christopher Herbert, the Bishop of St Albans, which is a stable that has saddled many archbishops before.

Remember, your investments can go down as well as up. In the event of Mr Hague winning the election, all bets are off.

Illustrations: John Richardson / Funny Business
© Ship of Fools 2000